Crop Yield Response and Community Resilience to Climate Change in the Bamenda Highlands
American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics
Volume 5, Issue 3, September 2019, Pages: 31-41
Received: Jun. 24, 2019; Accepted: Aug. 4, 2019; Published: Aug. 14, 2019
Views 102      Downloads 21
Authors
Innocent Ndoh Mbue, Department of Industrial Quality, Hygiene, Safety & Environment, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon
Bitondo Dieudonne, Department of Industrial Quality, Hygiene, Safety & Environment, University of Douala, Douala, Cameroon
Roland Balgah Azibo, College of Technology, University of Bamenda, Bambili, Cameroon
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
Climate change seems to be the most phytotoxic of all global changes. One of its most subtle impacts on plants development is on their reproductive processes. There has been very little work directed towards agrobiodiversity, and especially subsistence and cash crops in highland ecosystems. An understanding of the effects of climate change on the yield of such crops could contribute to the sustainable management of such ecosystems to avoid degradation and subsequent increases in poverty and hunger. This cross-sectional study assesses the trends and effects of climate change on the reproductive processes of plant species within rainfed agricultural systems in the Bamenda Highlands of Cameroon, together with community resilience. Twenty-four-year climatic data (1991 – 2015) and crop yield statistic over the same period constituted our secondary data sources. Primary data from field observations and focus group interviews with some 140 farmers complemented our database. Multiple regression analysis was used to test if rainfall and temperature significantly predicted crop yield. Community resilience was captured using ten indicators of social-ecological resilience in four domains. The results showed that, for the subsistence crops, the main effect of temperature on yield was significant, F (2, 23) = 7.91, MSE = 23.20, p < .01, as was the main effect of precipitation, F (2, 23) = 12.70, MSE = 23.20, p < .01. Declining yields have led to high prices of food items in the market, undermining food security. On the contrary, the two predictors of crop yield explained only 16.4% of the variance in cash crop yield (R2=.164, F (2, 21) = 2.065, p = .152). Neither rainfall (ß = .296, p = .236) nor temperature (ß =.-177.013, p = .233) significantly predicted cash crop yield (tea) yield, suggesting that decline in production could be as a result of estraneous variables such as the political environment and inadequate agricultural inputs. Consensus scores and trends for the indicators of social-ecological resilience ranged from low to medium, indicating a rather weak capacity of communities to cope with external stresses and disturbances. Cash-crop intensification, a driver of biodiversity loss elsewhere, did not negatively affect native tree richness within parcels. The result suggests a need to open up procedures and practices of participation and inclusion in order to accommodate pluralism, contestation and incommensurable perspectives and knowledge systems. Joining efforts to build community resilience, specifically by increasing livelihood diversity, local ecological knowledge, and social network connectivity, may help conservation agencies conserve the rapidly declining agrobiodiversity in the region.
Keywords
Bamenda Highlands, Community Resilience, Rainfall, Temperature, Local Ecological Knowledge
To cite this article
Innocent Ndoh Mbue, Bitondo Dieudonne, Roland Balgah Azibo, Crop Yield Response and Community Resilience to Climate Change in the Bamenda Highlands, American Journal of Biological and Environmental Statistics. Vol. 5, No. 3, 2019, pp. 31-41. doi: 10.11648/j.ajbes.20190503.11
Copyright
Copyright © 2019 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
References
[1]
Aggarwal PK, Kalra N, Chander S, et al. InfoCrop: A dynamic simulation model for the assessment of crop yields, losses due to pests, and environmental impact of agro-ecosystems in tropical environments. I. Model description. Agric Syst 2006; 89: 1–25. 6.
[2]
Ahmed, S. A., Diffenbaugh, N. S., Hertel, T. W., 2009a. Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 4, 034004.
[3]
Aldrich, D. P. (2012a), Building Resilience: Social Capital in Post-Disaster Recovery. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
[4]
Aydogdu, M. H. and Yenigün, K. 2016. Farmers’ Risk Perception towards Climate Change: A Case of the GAP-Şanlıurfa Region, Turkey. Sustainability, 8 (8): 806.
[5]
Avelino J, Cristiancho M, Georgiu S, Imbach P, Aguilar L, Bornemann G, Laderach P, Anzueto F, Hruska AJ, Morales C. 2015. The coffee rust crises in Colombia and Central America (2008–2013): impacts, plausible causes and proposed solutions. Food Sec 7 (2): 3030–3321. doi: 10.1007/s12571-015-0446-9
[6]
Barrett, C. and P. Santos (2014). The impact of changing rainfall variability on resource-dependent wealth dynamics. Ecological Economics 105, 48–54.
[7]
Bassu, S., N. Brisson, J.-L. Durand, K. et al. 2014: How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors? Glob. Change Biol., 20, no. 7, 2301-2320, doi: 10.1111/gcb.12520.
[8]
Binder CR, Hinkel J, Bots PWG, Pahl-Wostl C (2013) Comparison of framework for analyzing socio–ecological systems. Ecol Soc 18 (4): 26.
[9]
Bell J, Taylor M. 2015. Building climate-resilient food systems for Pacific Islands. Program Report: 2015-15. WorldFish, Penang, Malaysia.
[10]
Bhagwat SA, Willis KJ, Birks HJB, Whittaker RJ. 2008. Agroforestry: A refuge for tropical biodiversity? Trends in Ecology & Evolution 23: 261–267.
[11]
Bergamini N, et al. 2014. Toolkit for the indicators of resilience in socioecological production landscapes and seascapes. Policy report. UN University Institute for the Advanced Study of Sustainability, Tokyo, Biodiversity International, Rome, Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan, and the UN Development Programme, New York.
[12]
Burton, C. G., 2014. A validation of metrics for community resilience to naturalhazards and disasters using the recovery from Hurricane Katrina as a casestudy. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 105, 67–86.
[13]
Chelleri, L.; Olazabal, M. 2012. Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Urban Resilience; Basque Centre for Climate Change: Bilbao, Spain.
[14]
Constas, M. A. & Barrett, C. (2013). Principles of resilience measurement for food insecurity: Metrics, mechanisms, and implementation plans. Paper presented at the Expert Consultation on Resilience Measurement Related to Food Security, sponsored by the Food and Agricultural Organization and World Food Program, Rome, Italy, February 19-21, 2013.
[15]
Craufurd, P. Q., and Wheeler, T. R. (2009). Climate change and the flowering time of annual crops. J. Exp. Bot. 60, 2529-2539.
[16]
Durand, J. L., K. Delusca, K. Boote, J. Lizaso, R. Manderscheid, H. J. Weigel, A. C. Ruane, C. Rosenzweig, J. Jones, and L. Ahuja, 2018: How accurately do maize crop models simulate the interactions of atmospheric CO2 concentration levels with limited water supply on water use and yield? Eur. J. Agron., 100, 67-75.
[17]
FAO, IFAD and WFP. 2015. The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2015. Meeting the 2015 international hunger targets: taking stock of uneven progress. Rome, FAO FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization). 2010. Building resilience to climate change: root crop and fishery production. Pacific Food Security Toolkit. Food and Agriculture Organization, Rome.
[18]
FAO. 2016b. Climate change and food security. Risks and responses. Italy.
[19]
FAO. 1999a. Agricultural Biodiversity, Multifunctional Character of Agriculture and Land Conference, Background Paper 1. Maastricht, Netherlands. September 1999.
[20]
Feola, G. 2014. Narratives of grassroots innovations: a comparison of Voluntary Simplicity and the Transition Movement in Italy. International Journal of Innovation and Sustainable Development 8 (3): 250-269.
[21]
Hatfield J. L., Boote K. J., Kimball B. A., Ziska L. H., Izaurralde R. C., Ort D., et al. (2011). Climate impacts on agriculture: implications for crop production. Agron. J. 103351–370. 10.2134/agronj2010.0303.
[22]
Hertel TW, Burke MB, Lobell DB (2010) The poverty implications of climate-induced crop yield changes by 2030. Glob Environ Change 20 (4): 577–585.
[23]
Holling, C. S. Resilience and stability of ecological systems. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evolut. Syst. 1973, 4, 1–23.
[24]
IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, eds. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 996 pp.
[25]
Jacobi J, Schneider M, Bottazzi P, Pillco M, Calizaya P, et al. 2015. Agroecosystem resilience and farmers’ perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems 30: 170–183.
[26]
Jiggins, J., & Rӧlling, R. 2000. Adaptive management: Potential and limitations for ecological governance. International Journal of Agricultural Resources, Governance, and Ecology, 1 (1), 28e42.
[27]
Kumar, A., Sharma, P. and Joshi, S. 2016. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Land Productivity in Indian Crop Agriculture: An Evidence from Panel Data Analysis. J. Agric. Scie. Technol., 18 (1): 1-13.
[28]
Lin B. B., 2007. Agroforestry management as an adaptive strategy against potential microclimate extremes in coffee agriculture. Agr Forest Meteorol 144: 85–94.
[29]
Iizumi, T. et al. 2014a. Impacts of El Nino Southern Oscillation on the global yields of major crops, Nature Communications, 5: 3712.
[30]
Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., Costa-Roberts, J., 2011. Climatetrendsandglobalcrop production since1980. Science333, 616–620.
[31]
Lobell, D. B., M. B. Burke, C. Tebaldi, M. D. Mastrandrea, W. P. Falcon, and R. L. Naylor, 2008: Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319, 607–610.
[32]
Miles, M. B., & Huberman, A. M. (1994). Qualitative Data Analysis: An Expanded Sourcebook. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
[33]
Ndoh M. I., Jiwen G. 2008. Towards a sustainable land use option in the Bamenda Highlands, Cameroon: Implication for Climate Change Mitigation, Income Generation and Sustainable Food supply. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, 3 (1): 51-65.
[34]
Nguyen Q, Hoang MH, Oborn I, van Noordwijk M. 2013. Multipurpose agroforestry as a climate change resiliency option for farmers: an example of local adaptation in Vietnam. Climatic Change 117: 241–257.
[35]
O’Brien, G., P. O’Keefe, J. Rose, and B. Wisner. 2006. Climate change and disaster management. Disasters 30 (1): 64–80.
[36]
Pishbahar, E. and Darparnian, S. 2016. Factors Creating Systematic Risk for Rainfed Wheat Production in Iran, Using Spatial Econometric Approach. J. Agr. Sci. Tech., 18 (4): 895-909.
[37]
Quazi SA, Ticktin T. 2016. Understanding drivers of forest diversity and structure in managed landscapes: secondary forests, plantations, and agroforests in Bangladesh. Forest Ecology and Management 366: 118–134.
[38]
Serre, D.; Barroca, B.; Laganier, R. Resilience and Urban Risk Management; CRC Press: Boca Raton, FL, USA, 2012.
[39]
Trenberth, K. E., et al. (2007), Observations: Surface and atmospheric climate change, in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by S. Solomon et al., pp. 235–336, Cambridge Univ. Press, New York.
[40]
UNCCD. White Paper 1: Economic and Social Impacts of Desertification, Land Degradation and Drought. 2nd UNCCD Scientific Conference, 9-12 April 2013.
[41]
Vandermeer J, van Noordwijk M, Anderson J, Ong C, Perfecto I. 1998. Global change and multi-species agroecosystems: Concepts and issues. Agr Ecosyst Environ 67: 1–22.
[42]
Wahid, A., Close, T. J., 2007. Expression of dehydrins under heat stress and their relationship with water relations of sugarcane leaves. Biol. Plant. 51, 104–109.
[43]
Worldbank (2011): Policy Brief: Opportunities and Challenges for Climate-Smart Agriculture in Africa.
[44]
Yachi S, Loreau M. 1999. Biodiversity and ecosystem productivity in a fluctuating environment: The insurance hypothesis. P Natl A.
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186