American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics
Volume 7, Issue 1, March 2019, Pages: 10-17
Received: Jun. 19, 2019;
Accepted: Jul. 12, 2019;
Published: Jul. 26, 2019
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Kim Kwee Ng, Department of Physics and Astronomy, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York, USA
The magnitude of the measured geomagnetic index increases when the Coronal Mass Ejections occur on the Sun's surface. The abrupt increase in the geomagnetic index has seriously impacted the accuracy in the forecast of the activity of the next solar cycle. A method is proposed to filter the effect from the Coronal Mass Ejections. The correlation between the geomagnetic index and the activity of the subsequent solar cycle is found to have drastically improved with the proposed scheme. A strong correlation between the maximum amplitude RN of a solar cycle N and its pre-cycle coronal mass ejections adjusted monthly geomagnetic activity index has been qualitatively determined, as illustrated by an impressive correlation coefficient of 0.91+0.09-0.12, with its statistical significance estimated at 4.3 σ. The corrected data have significantly improved the correlation between the observed variables from their original un-corrected case of 0.63 ± 0.23. Our result indicates that the upcoming solar cycle, estimated at R25 = 147 ± 30, would be stronger than the current waning solar cycle 24. In a related calculation, the magnetic poles reversals occurring in the solar cycles 21 and 22 are reproduced numerically from Maxwell's electromagnetic equations.
Kim Kwee Ng,
Coronal Mass Ejections, Solar Cycles and Magnetic Poles Reversal, American Journal of Astronomy and Astrophysics.
Vol. 7, No. 1,
2019, pp. 10-17.
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