Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District
International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences
Volume 1, Issue 1, December 2017, Pages: 14-20
Received: Dec. 22, 2016;
Accepted: Jan. 18, 2017;
Published: Feb. 27, 2017
Views 2251 Downloads 107
Fikadu Getachew, Climate and Geospatial Research Directorate, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Mezgebu Getnet, Climate and Geospatial Research Directorate, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Robel Takele, Climate and Geospatial Research Directorate, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Eshetu Zewdu, Climate and Geospatial Research Directorate, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) was calibrated and evaluated to simulate maize (zea mays L.) var. BH660 under current and future climate in Ethiopia under moist mid-highlands of Ethiopia around Ambo Zuria district. Simulations for both current and future periods were run assuming present technology, current varieties and current agronomy packages to investigate rain-fed Maize yield responses. Simulations was made using downscaled weather data from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) by mid-century show a mixture of increase and decrease in median Maize yields. Five GCMs project yields to increase by 5% - 23.0% and one GCM show a decrease by 2% - 9%. Model simulations under the remaining three GCMs give contrasting results of increase and decrease.
Maize (Zea Mays L.) Productivity in Moist Mid-Highlands of Ethiopia Under Projected Climate Change: A Case Study of Ambo District, International Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences.
Vol. 1, No. 1,
2017, pp. 14-20.
Araya, A., & Stroosnijder, L. (2011). Assessing drought risk and irrigation need in northern Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest meteorology, 151 (4), 425-436.
Araya, A., Keesstra, S. D., & Stroosnijder, L. (2010). A new agro-climatic classification for crop suitability zoning in northern semi-arid Ethiopia. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 150 (7), 1057-1064.
Boko, M., Niang, I., Nyong, A., Vogel, C., Githeko, A., Medany, M.,... & Yanda, P. (2007). Africa.
Challinor, A., Wheeler, T., Garforth, C., Craufurd, P., & Kassam, A. (2007). Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change. Climatic change, 83 (3), 381-399.
Coe, R., & Stern, R. D. (2011). Assessing and addressing climate-induced risk in sub-Saharan rainfed agriculture: Lessons learned. Experimental Agriculture, 47 (02), 395-410.
Conway, D., & Schipper, E. L. F. (2011). Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change, 21 (1), 227-237.
Cooper, D. S., Doherty, G. M., Haugen, B. R., Kloos, R. T., Lee, S. L., Mandel, S. J.,... & Sherman, S. I. (2009). Revised American Thyroid Association management guidelines for patients with thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer: the American Thyroid Association (ATA) guidelines taskforce on thyroid nodules and differentiated thyroid cancer. Thyroid, 19 (11), 1167-1214.
Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., Rao, K. P. C., Shapiro, B., Shiferaw, B., & Twomlow, S. (2008). Coping better with current climatic variability in the rain-fed farming systems of sub-Saharan Africa: An essential first step in adapting to future climate change?. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment, 126 (1), 24-35.
Demeke, A. B., Keil, A., & Zeller, M. (2011). Using panel data to estimate the effect of rainfall shocks on smallholders food security and vulnerability in rural Ethiopia. Climatic change, 108 (1-2), 185-206.
Dixit, P. N., Cooper, P. J. M., Dimes, J., & Rao, K. P. (2011). Adding value to field-based agronomic research through climate risk assessment: A case study of maize production in Kitale, Kenya. Experimental Agriculture, 47 (02), 317-338.
Goulder, L. H., & Pizer, W. A. (2006). The economics of climate change (No. w11923). National Bureau of Economic Research.
Hoogenboom, G, Jones, J. W., Porter, C. H., Wilkens, P. W., Boote, K. J., Hunt, L. A., and Tsuji, G. Y. (Editors). 2010. Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Version 4.5. Volume 1: Overview. University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI.
Jones, P. G., & Thornton, P. K. (2009). Croppers to livestock keepers: livelihood transitions to 2050 in Africa due to climate change. Environmental Science & Policy, 12 (4), 427-437.
Jones, P. G., Thornton, P. K., & Heinke, J. (2009). Generating characteristic daily weather data using downscaled climate model data from the IPCC's Fourth Assessment.
Meehl, G. A., Stocker, T. F., Collins, W. D., Friedlingstein, P., Gaye, A. T., Gregory, J. M.,... & Raper, S. C. (2007). Global climate projections. Climate change, 3495, 747-845.
Parry, M. L. (Ed.). (2007). Climate change 2007-impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: Working group II contribution to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC (Vol. 4). Cambridge University Press.
Pathak, T. B., Fraisse, C. W., Jones, J. W., Messina, C. D., & Hoogenboom, G. (2007). Use of global sensitivity analysis for CROPGRO cotton model development. Transactions of the ASABE, 50 (6), 2295-2302.
Román-Paoli, E., Welch, S. M., & Vanderlip, R. L. (2000). Comparing genetic coefficient estimation methods using the CERES-Maize model. Agricultural Systems, 65 (1), 29-41.
Rosell, S. (2011). Regional perspective on rainfall change and variability in the central highlands of Ethiopia, 1978–2007. Applied Geography, 31 (1), 329-338.
Slingo, J. M., Challinor, A. J., Hoskins, B. J., & Wheeler, T. R. (2005). Introduction: food crops in a changing climate. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B: Biological Sciences, 360 (1463), 1983-1989.
Stern, N. (2006). What is the economics of climate change?. WORLD ECONOMICS-HENLEY ON THAMES-, 7 (2), 1.
Stern, N. H. (2007). The economics of climate change: the Stern review. cambridge University press.
Thornton, P. K., Jones, P. G., Ericksen, P. J., & Challinor, A. J. (2011). Agriculture and food systems in sub-Saharan Africa in a 4 C+ world. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 369 (1934), 117-136.
Tingem, M., Rivington, M., & Bellocchi, G. (2009). Adaptation assessments for crop production in response to climate change in Cameroon. Agronomy for sustainable development, 29 (2), 247-256.