Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic
American Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2016, Pages: 24-39
Received: Jan. 12, 2016; Accepted: Feb. 1, 2016; Published: Feb. 29, 2016
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Authors
Hesham Abd El Khalek, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Remon Fayek Aziz, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Hamada Mohamed Kamel, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
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Abstract
In the global construction market, most construction companies are willing to undertake international projects in order to maximize their profitability by taking advantage of attractive emerging markets and minimize dependence on local market. Due to the nature of construction works, there are lots of risks and uncertainties associated with the company and project conditions. Therefore, how the profitability of the project changes with occurrence of various risk events, in other words, the sensitivity of project costs to risk events, should be estimated realistically. This paper offers a comprehensive risk assessment methodology that provides a decision support tool, which can be utilized through the bidding decisions for international construction projects introducing a risk model that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects and evaluate risk contingency value. The risk models is developed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software. The reliability of the developed software has been tested by applications on a real construction projects. The proposed methodology and decision support tool have been proved to be reliable for the estimation of cost overrun due to risk while giving bidding decisions in international markets. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued. The developed risk model is validated, which prove its robustness in risk assessment (97%) in company level and (105%) in project level. It can also be used to sort construction projects based upon risk. The developed contingency risk model demonstrate the ability to evaluate risk contingency value by aggregating rules combining company risk index and project risk index using fuzzy logic approach and MATLAB software.
Keywords
Risk Management, International Construction, Risk Factors, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Logic Approach, MATLAB Software, Validation Process
To cite this article
Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Mohamed Kamel, Risk and Uncertainty Assessment Model in Construction Projects Using Fuzzy Logic, American Journal of Civil Engineering. Vol. 4, No. 1, 2016, pp. 24-39. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.13
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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