Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP
American Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2016, Pages: 12-23
Received: Jan. 16, 2016; Accepted: Jan. 30, 2016; Published: Feb. 23, 2016
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Authors
Hesham Abd El Khalek, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Remon Fayek Aziz, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt
Hamada Kamel, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
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Abstract
Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.
Keywords
Risk Management, International Construction, Risk Factors, Optimization Model, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), FUZZY LOGIC Approach, MATLAB Software, Validation Process
To cite this article
Hesham Abd El Khalek, Remon Fayek Aziz, Hamada Kamel, Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP, American Journal of Civil Engineering. Vol. 4, No. 1, 2016, pp. 12-23. doi: 10.11648/j.ajce.20160401.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2016 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
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