Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP
American Journal of Civil Engineering
Volume 4, Issue 1, January 2016, Pages: 12-23
Received: Jan. 16, 2016;
Accepted: Jan. 30, 2016;
Published: Feb. 23, 2016
Views 5209 Downloads 184
Hesham Abd El Khalek, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Remon Fayek Aziz, Construction Engineering and Management, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Egypt
Hamada Kamel, Faculty of Engineering, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
Infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects carry out higher risk than traditional because they entail high capital outlays and intricate site conditions. The high-risk exposure associated with infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects needs special attention from contractors to analyze and manage their risks. They cannot be eliminated but can be minimized or transferred from one project stakeholder to another. Therefore, current research aims for identifying the risk factors that affect infrastructure cross-country pipelines projects based on experts experience and company’s point of view which participated in similar projects. The risk factors classified under two categories to company level risks and project level risks. The risk factors were assessed using risk assessment models that facilitate this assessment procedure, prioritize these projects based upon its risk indexes and evaluate risk contingency value. Analytical hierarchy process (AHP) used to evaluate risk factors weights (likelihood) and FUZZY LOGIC approach to evaluate risk factors impact (Risk consequences) using software aids such as EXCEL and MATLAB software, accordingly risk indexes for both company level and project level evaluated and overall project risk index determined. Five case studies in different countries were selected to determine the highest risk factors and to implement the designed models and test its results. Results show that project no 3 in Iraq conquer the highest risk index (39.75%); however, project 5 in Egypt has the lowest risk index (5.24%). Results of risk factors in other countries are (32.81%) in Emirates, (17.27%) in Saudi Arabia and (11.67%) in Libya. Therefore, the developed model can be used to sort projects based upon risk, which facilitate company’s decision of which project can be pursued.
Hesham Abd El Khalek,
Remon Fayek Aziz,
Uncertainty and Risk Factors Assessment for Cross-Country Pipelines Projects Using AHP, American Journal of Civil Engineering.
Vol. 4, No. 1,
2016, pp. 12-23.
Antonio J., Monroy A, Gema S., R., and Lopez A., (2011). “Financial Risks in Construction Projects”. African Journal Of Business Management Vol. 5(31), Pp. 12325-12328, 7 December, 2011.
Al-Bahar, J. F. and Crandall, K. C., 1990. “Systematic risk management approach for construction projects”, Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 116(3), 533-546.
Babatunde A, Damian M., Dan Van Horst., Lee Chapman. (20120. “Attacks On Oil Transport Pipelines In Nigeria: a quantitative exploration and possible explanation of observed patterns”. applied geography 32 (2012) 636e651.
Bu-Qammaz, A. S. (2007), “risk assessment of international construction projects using the analytic network process”, master of science thesis, middle east technical university.
Chapman, C. and Ward, S., (1997). “Project Risk Management Processes, Techniques and Insights”, John Wiley, UK.
Cooper D, Grey S, Raymond G and Walker P, 2007, “Project Risk Management Guidelines: Managing Risk in Large Projects and Complex Procurements”, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd, ISBN 0-470-02281-7.
Cooper, D. and Chapman C., (1987), “Risk Analysis for Large Projects- Models, Methods and Cases”, John Wiley, UK.
Carreño, M. L., Cardona, O. D. and Barbat, A. H. “Evaluation of the Risk Management Performance”, 250th Anniversary of the 1755 Lisbon Earthquake, technical University Of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain.
Xiaoping D., And Pheng L., (2012). “Understanding the Critical Variables Affecting the Level of Political Risks In International Construction Projects”. KSCE Journal of Civil Engineering (2013) 17(5): 895-907.
Dias A, Ioannou P.,(1996). “Company and Project Evaluation Model for Privately Promoted Infrastructure Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, ASCE 1996; 122(1): 71–82. March.
Dikmen I, Birgonul T and Han S. (2007). “Using Fuzzy Risk Assessment to Rate Cost Overrun Risk in International Construction Projects”. International Journal of Project Management 25 (2007) 494–505.
Enrique Jr., Ricardo C., Vicent E. and Aznar J., (2011)." Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) as a Decision Support Tool In Water Resources Management". Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology—Aqua | 60.6 | 2011.
Gunhan S, Arditi D.(2005). “International expansion decision for construction companies”. ASCE, j constreng manage 2005; 131(8): 928–37.
Hyun C., Hyo C. and Seo J. W., (2004). “Risk Assessment Methodology for Underground Construction Projects”, ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 130, 258-272.
Jaafari A. (2001). “Management of risks: uncertainties and opportunities on projects: time for a fundamental shift”. international journal of project management 19 (2001) 89±101
John, W., G. and Edward Jr. (2003). “International Project Risk Assessment: Methods, Procedures, and Critical Factors”., A Report of The Center Construction Industry Studies The University Of Texas At Austin.
Liu, A., Wang B, Ma Qingguo B. (2011). The Effects of Project Uncertainty and Risk Management on IS Development Project Performance”. A Vendor Perspective International Journal of Project Management 29 (2011) 923–933.
Ludovic V, Marle F, Bocquet J, C. (2011). “Measuring Project Complexity Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process”. International Journal of Project Management 29 (2011) 718–727.
Ming W. and Hui C. (2003). “Risk Allocation and Risk Handling of Highway Projects In Taiwan”. Journal of Management in Engineering, Asce / April 2003.
Mohamed A. and Aminah F., (2010). “Risk management in the construction industry using combined fuzzy FMEA and fuzzy AHP”. journal of construction engineering and management, ASCE / September 2010.
Ofori, G. (2000). "Globalization and construction industry development: research opportunities". Construction Management and Economics, 18, 257-262.
Ofori, G and Chan, S L." (2000) Factors influencing growth of construction enterprises in Singapore". Construction Management and Economics (in press).
Prasanta D., (2002). “An Integrated Assessment Model For Cross Country Pipelines”. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 22, (2002) 703–721.
Prasanta D., (2010). “Managing Project Risk Using Combined Analytic Hierarchy Process and Risk Map”. Applied Soft Computing 10 (2010) 990–1000.
Saaty TL. The Analytic Hierarchy Process. 1980. New York: Mc graw- Hill, 1980.
Saaty TL. Decision Making For Leaders. Belmont, California: Life Time Leaning Publications, 1985.
Saaty TL. (1990). “How to Make a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process”. European Journal of Operational Research, North-Holland 1990; 48: 9±26.
Saaty TL, Kearns KP. (1991). “Analytical Planning: The Organization of Systems”. The Analytic Hierarchy Process Series 1991; Vol. 4RWS.
Salman, A. (2003). “Study Of Applying Build Operate And Transfer Bot Contractual System On Infrastructure Projects In Egypt”. PHD Thesis, Zagazig University, Faculty of Eng.
Seung H., James E. and Jong H., (2005). “Contractor’s risk attitudes in the selection of international construction projects”. journal of construction engineering and management, ASCE / march 2005 / 283.
Suat, G and David A.(2005).“Factors affecting international construction”. journal of construction engineering and management, ASCE / march 2005 / 273.
WTO Annual Report 2004 - World Trade Organization.
Wang M, Chou H. Risk allocation and risk handling of highway projects in Taiwan. J Manage Eng, ASCE 2003; 19(2): 60–8. April.
Zayed T, Mohamed A, Jiayin P. (2008). "Assessing Risk And Uncertainty Inherent In Chinese Highway Projects Using AHP “Internal Journal Of Project Management” 26 (2008) 408–419.
Zayed, T, and Chang, L. (2002). "Prototype Model for Build-Operate-Transfer Risk Assessment. Journal of Management In Engineering / January 2002 / 7.
Zayed TM, Halpin DW. Quantitative assessment for piles productivity factors. J Constr Eng Manage, ASCE 2004; 130(3): 405–14. May/ June.
PMI (Project Management Institute). A guide to project management body of knowledge: PMBOK (Project Management Book of Knowledge (Guide. 2nd ed. Upper Darby, PA, USA; 2000.
Baghdadi, A, Kishk, M., (2015). “Saudi Arabian aviation construction projects: Identification of risks and their consequences”. Procedia Engineering 123 (2015) 32–40.
Khodeir, L., Mohamed, A., (2014). “Identifying the latest risk probabilities aﬀecting construction projects in Egypt according to political and economic variables”. Housing and Building National Research Center, HBRC Journal (2015) 11, 129–135.
Rafindadi, A., Miki, M., Kovai, I. and Ceki, Z., (2014). “Global Perception of Sustainable Construction Project Risks”, 27 th IPMA World Congress, Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences 119 (2014) 456–465.
Tanaka, H., (2014). “Toward project and program management paradigm in the space of complexity: a case study of mega and complex oil and gas development and infrastructure projects”. 27 th IPMA World Congress, Procedia- Social and Behavioral Sciences 119 (2014) 65-74.
Toh, T., Ting, C., Ali, A., Aliagha, G. and Munir, O., (2012). “Critical cost factors of building construction projects in Malaysia”. International Conference on Asia Pacific Business Innovation and Technology Management, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences 57 (2012) 360–367.