Industrialization and Youth Unemployment in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach
International Journal of Business and Economics Research
Volume 9, Issue 5, October 2020, Pages: 334-344
Received: Aug. 11, 2020; Accepted: Aug. 20, 2020; Published: Sep. 21, 2020
Views 52      Downloads 64
Johnson Akpan Atan, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Ubong Edem Effiong, Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Article Tools
Follow on us
This paper is an empirical investigation into the role of the industrial sector in curbing youth unemployment in Nigeria using time series data that covers the period 1991 to 2019. The data were subjected to unit root test using the Augmented Dickey Fuller and Philip-Peron test techniques. THE data was analysed using the ARDL approach and Granger causality test. The result of the unit root test reported that the variables were integrated in mixed order of levels and first difference. This mixed order of integration necessitated the use of the ARDL Bounds test for cointegration. From the bounds test, there exist a long-run/levels relationship between youth unemployment and the explanatory variables. Also, the error correction term (-0.6215) showed that 62.15% of the short-run disequilibrium is corrected annually. The result further revealed that industrial output exerts a negative effect on youth unemployment both in the short-run and in the long-run. This implies that increasing the volume of industrial activities will reduce youth unemployment. The Granger causality test also showed that there exists causal relationship between youth unemployment and industrialization in Nigeria. The paper therefore recommended the need for boosting industrialization in Nigeria as it will curb massive youth unemployment in the country rather than advocating on entrepreneurship. This is because a strong industrial base will spring up more jobs than new ventures who are noted for folding up within few years of operations.
Youth Unemployment, Industrialization, Bank Credit, ARDL, Cointegration
To cite this article
Johnson Akpan Atan, Ubong Edem Effiong, Industrialization and Youth Unemployment in Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) Approach, International Journal of Business and Economics Research. Vol. 9, No. 5, 2020, pp. 334-344. doi: 10.11648/j.ijber.20200905.15
Copyright © 2020 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License ( which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Onah, F. O. (2001). Urban unemployment situation in Nigeria. In: Ezeani, E. O. and Elekwa, N. N. (eds.) Issues in Urbanization and Urban Administration in Nigeria, pp. 154-167, Enugu: Jamo Enterprises.
National Bureau of Statistics (2018). Labour force statistics, Volume 1: Unemployment and underemployment report.
Folabi, F. (2013). “Obasanjo Sustains Anxiety in PDP”. Retrieved on 29/5/2013.
Onwukwe, N. U. (2003). Fundamentals of microeconomics. Abakaliki: Printwell Press Ltd.
African Economic Outlook (2017). Entrepreneurship and industrialization. Available at:
Lin, J. Y. and Monga, C. (2013). Comparative advantage: The silver bullet of industrial policy. In: J. E. Stiglitz and J. Y. Lin (eds.), The Industrial Policy Revolution 1: The Role of Government Beyond Ideology, pp. 19-38, UK: Palgrave Macmillan.
Okurebia, S. O. (2014). Industrialization, youth employment and capacity utilization in Africa: Some fundamental problems. European Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 6, No. 27.
Central Bank of Nigeria (2019). Statistical bulletin.
Ukommi, A. S., Agha, E. O. and Ekpenyong, O. A. (2013). Industrial development and youth unemployment: The case of Crushed Rock Quarry Industry, Ishiagu in Ebonyi State. Knowledge Review, Volume 28, No. 1.
Torado, M. P. and Smith, S. C. (2011). Economic development. Eleventh edition. Harlow: Pearson Education Limited.
Islam, N. and Yokota, K. (2008). Lewis growth model and China’s industrialization. Asian Economic Journal, 22, pp. 359-396.
Zang, X., Yang, J. and Wang, S. (2010). China has reached the Lewis turning point. International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) discussion paper, 977, Washington, D. C.
Dauda, R. O. S. (2004). An economic assessment of the industrial sector in Nigeria’s fledging fourth Republic. International Journal of Social Sciences, 3 (1): 136-149.
Olusoji, M. O. and Oderinde, O. L. (2017). Industrialization, growth and employment in Nigeria. Selected Papers for the 2017 Conference Proceedings of the Nigerian Economic Society.
Athukorala, P. and Sen, K. (2015). Industrialization, Employment and Poverty. Working Papers in Trade and Development, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics Crawford School of Public Policy, ANU College of Asia and the Pacific. Working Paper No. 2015.
Lapova, A. and Szirmai, A. (2012). Industrialization, employment and poverty. UNU-MERIT Working Paper No. 81.
Ogbimi, F. E. (2007). Promoting sustainable economic growth and industrialization: Solution to mass unemployment and poverty. African Journal of Traditional, Complementary and Alternative Medicines.
World Bank (2019). World development indicators. Yipping, H. and Tingsong, J. (2010). What does the Lewis turning point mean for China? A computable general equilibrium analysis. China Centre for Economic Research Working Paper.
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186