International Journal of Business and Economics Research
Volume 8, Issue 3, June 2019, Pages: 118-124
Received: Apr. 16, 2019;
Accepted: Jun. 2, 2019;
Published: Jun. 17, 2019
Views 131 Downloads 19
Yan Du, Institute of Finance, Hunan University of Commerce, Changsha, China
Qian Wu, Institute of Economy and Trade, Hunan University of Commerce, Changsha, China
Based on the framework of neoclassical growth theory, this paper constructs a time series threshold co-integration model to test and analyze the impact of ratio of the tertiary and the secondary industry, the tertiary and the primary industry, the productive service industry and the service industry on economic growth during 1979-2015 in China. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) there is a threshold effect of industrial structure change on economic growth. The time node of the threshold effect is about 2009-2010. (2) threshold effect of industrial structure on economic growth is mainly achieved by changing the output efficiency of labor factors. After 2009-2010, the labor output efficiency declines significantly, while the capital output efficiency remains basically unchanged. The conclusions of the study show that the premature development of service industry and the excessive non-productive tendency of service industry development are very detrimental to the sustained growth of China's economy in the middle and late stages of industrialization. This paper provides some policy suggestions, such as continuing to promote the mechanization and large-scale development of the agricultural industry, deepening the development of manufacturing industry, and focusing on the development of productive services, to maintain the high-speed economic growth of China.
Threshold Effect of Industrial Structure Change on Economic Growth, International Journal of Business and Economics Research.
Vol. 8, No. 3,
2019, pp. 118-124.
Lang, L. H., Chou, M. S (2012). Structural reform and macroeconomic Stability. Economic Research 8, 152-160.
Liu, S. X., Fan, Y. X (2012). Macroeconomic policy should be dominated by structural reform. Chinese Finance 20, 71-73.
Liu, Y. N., An, L. R., Jin, T. L (2014). The quality of China's economic growth under the background of unbalanced economic structure. Research on Quantity Economy and Technology Economy 10, 20-35.
Yuan, F. H (2014). Analysis of the dual structure of Chinese economy. Economic and Management Review 3, 9-17.
Yu, B. B (2015). The Economic growth effect of industrial structure adjustment and productivity improvement: an analysis based on Chinese urban dynamic spatial panel model. Industrial Economy of China 12, 83-95.
Shen, K. R., Teng, Y. L (2013). Economic growth in China under the “structural” deceleration. Economist 8, 29-38.
China Economic Growth Frontier Group (2013). Structural characteristics, transition risk and ways to improve efficiency for slowdown of China's economic. Economic Research 3, 4-18.
Denison, E. F (1962). United States economic growth. Journal of Business 35 (2), 109-121.
Peneder, M. (2003). Industrial structure and aggregate growth. Structural Change & Economic Dynamics, 14 (4), 427-448.
Kuznets, S (1971). economic growth of nations, Harvard University Press.
Chenery, H. B., Robinson, S., Syrquin, M., et al (1986). Industrialization and growth: a comparative study. Oxford University Press.
Nutahara, K (2008). Structural changes and economic growth: evidence from Japan. Economics Bulletin 15 (9), 1-11.
Cortuk, O., Singh, N (2013). Analyzing the structural change and growth relationship in India: state-level evidence. Working Papers, UC Santa Cruz Economics Department, No. 712.
Cao, K. H., Birchenall, J. A (2013). Agricultural productivity, structural change, and economic growth in post-reform China. Journal of Development Economics 104 (3), 165-180.
Donatella, S (2015). Structural change, globalization and economic growth in China and India. European Journal of Comparative Economics 12 (2), 133-163.
Liu, W., Zhang H (2008). Changes in industrial structure and technological progress in China's economic growth. Economic Research 11, 4-15.
Gan, C. H., Zheng, R. G., Yu, D. F (2011). The influence of China's industrial structure change on economic growth and fluctuation. Economic Research 5, 4-16.
Chou, S. F., Wang, W., Dong, D. X (2013). An Analysis of the effect of human capital and industrial structure transformation on economic growth: empirical evidence from provincial panel data in China. Research on Quantity Economy and Technology Economy 8, 65-77.
Kumar, N (2002). Globalization and the quality of foreign direct investment. Oxford University Press.
Gonzalo, J., Pitarakis, J (2006). Threshold effects in cointegrating relationships. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 68 (s1): 813-833.
Teräsvirta, T (1994). Specification, estimation, and evaluation of smooth transition autoregressive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 89 (425): 208-218.
Choi, I., Saikkonen, P (2010). Tests for nonlinear cointegration. Econometric Theory 26 (3), 682-709.