Evaluation of Grey Forecasting Method of Total Domestic Coffee Consumption in Indonesia
International Journal of Business and Economics Research
Volume 6, Issue 4, August 2017, Pages: 67-72
Received: Jul. 19, 2017;
Published: Jul. 19, 2017
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Tien-Chin Wang, Departement of International Business, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Muhammad Ghalih, Departement of International Business, National Kaohsiung University of Applied Sciences, Kaohsiung, Taiwan; Departement of Agricultural Industrial Technology, State Polytechnic of Tanah Laut, Pelaihari, Indonesia
Indonesia is the one of the world’s top coffee producing and exporting countries. Meanwhile, in this study, only focus on forecasting the total of domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia applied the Grey differential model which is called GM (1,1) model of Grey theory to predict the amount of domestic coffee consumption in Indonesia from 1990 to 2017. According to the estimated result, the average residual error of the Grey forecast model is over 5 percent. The model predicts that the total of consumption will increase in each year. Based on the experimental results, this proposed method apparently not only improve the forecasting accuracy of the original Grey models but also provide a valuable reference for Indonesia coffee farmer and industries to make the action plan for the future.
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