Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries
Journal of World Economic Research
Volume 3, Issue 6-1, December 2014, Pages: 33-38
Received: Dec. 14, 2014; Accepted: Dec. 16, 2014; Published: Feb. 8, 2015
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Ahlem Dahem, Integration Laboratory of International Economic, FSEGT, University Tunis EL MANAR, Tunis, Tunisia
Dhafer Saidane, EQUIPPE-Université de Lille Nord de France and Skema Business School, Université Charles de Gaulle Lille 3, France
Fatma Siala Guermazi, Integration Laboratory of International Economic, FSEGT, University Tunis EL MANAR, Tunis, Tunisia
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The question of the determination of effective forecasting models, for macroeconomic variables, is still considered crucial for the monetary authorities. On the academic side, the interest aroused by this issue in international economics has been a subject of major debate at the center of the recent literature. This last demonstrate that predictions are crucial for the conduct of monetary policy. In order to find inflation divers and powerful models to explain clearly the dynamic of prices and inflation forecasting, this research gives special importance to inflation forecasting and represents an empirical comparison test of three models for predicting the inflation in the case of the countries of the Agadir Agreement of 2007 (Tunisia, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan) : the mark-up model, the monetary model and the Phillips curve through two econometric approaches: individual time series and panel data over the period 1990 – 2013. For comparison of prevision, we used the structural break test Bai and Perron (2003) and the RMSE criterion. We show that the mark-up model is the best suited for forecasting inflation and our results confirm our expectations.
Monetary Policy, Inflation Drivers, Inflation Forecasting, Monetary Model, Mark-Up Model, Phillips Curve
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Ahlem Dahem, Dhafer Saidane, Fatma Siala Guermazi, Drivers and Forecasting Inflation for Agreement Agadir Countries, Journal of World Economic Research. Special Issue: Issues and Challenges of the Financial and Economic Crisis Throughout the World. Vol. 3, No. 6-1, 2014, pp. 33-38. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.15
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