The Effect of Global Economic Crisis on Turkish Tourism Demand and a Review for the Period 2003-2013
Journal of World Economic Research
Volume 3, Issue 6-1, December 2014, Pages: 22-32
Received: Nov. 20, 2014; Accepted: Dec. 3, 2014; Published: Jan. 27, 2015
Views 3465      Downloads 297
Authors
Kudret Gul, Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Balikesir Vocational School, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
Nuran Aksit Asik, Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, Balikesir Vocational School, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
Ali Kemal Gurbuz, Department of Recreational Management, Tourism Faculty, Balikesir University, Balikesir, Turkey
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
Turkish tourism has developed as more dependent on the international tourism demand until the 2000s. However, it has gained more stable and more balanced structure with the effect of increase in demand of domestic tourism in the early 21st century. In recent years, despite of the global crisis, the growth rate of the domestic and international tourism expenditure is well above the growth rate of the economy in Turkey. In this study, the effect of the global crisis on Turkish tourism demand has been investigated. The study has focused on factors such as "inflation", "currency" and "interest rates", which may affect Turkish tourism during the global financial crisis. In this way, the effects of the crisis on tourism demand are explained more clearly. The results show occurrence of a significant slowdown in the Turkish foreign active tourism during the global crisis. This deceleration was independent of the inflation and exchange rate effect. Furthermore, it was merely caused by the global crisis. Though, the domestic and overseas travels were increased in Turkey despite of the crisis during the period 2008-2013. Decreasing interest rates played a major role in this increase. Thus, the effect of interest rate on tourist spending can be accepted as a strong influential factor. The study has two important aspects. First, the contractionary effects of the global crisis on the tourism demand are to be determined by taking into account the possible effects of economic variables such as currency, inflation, interest rates, etc. Secondly, this study has a visionary approach, which is an evaluation of the global economic crisis as an opportunity. Besides, it also indicated the effect of the specified variables on tourism demand.
Keywords
Tourism Demand, Crisis, Growth, Interest, Inflation and Currency
To cite this article
Kudret Gul, Nuran Aksit Asik, Ali Kemal Gurbuz, The Effect of Global Economic Crisis on Turkish Tourism Demand and a Review for the Period 2003-2013, Journal of World Economic Research. Special Issue: Issues and Challenges of the Financial and Economic Crisis Throughout the World. Vol. 3, No. 6-1, 2014, pp. 22-32. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.s.2014030601.14
References
[1]
Asia Pasific. (2004). South Korea’s Overburdened Consumers. Asia Pasific, September 2004, 13(9), 5-6.
[2]
Banking Supervision and Regulation Agency. (2012). “Financial Market Report”. December 2012, Number 28, available at: https://www.bddk.org.tr/WebSitesi/turkce/Raporlar/Finansal_Piyasalar_Raporlari/11902fpr_aralik2012_29032013bb.pdf (accessed 14 April 2014).
[3]
Beeton, S. (2001). Horseback Tourism in Victoria: Cooperative, Proactive Crisis Management. Current Issues in Tourism, 4(5), 403-421.
[4]
Borza, M. (2010). “The Effects of Financial Crisis on Tourism Market”. Available at: http://www.mbf-eu.info/Files/ 415f6d76-d58e-449a-b451-bc854e406c6e/paper_BORZA.pdf (accessed 17 October 2014).
[5]
Burkart, A.J. and Meldik, S. (1981). Tourism: Past, Present and Future. Second Edition, London: William Heinemann Ltd.
[6]
Comcec. (2014). COMCEC (Standing Committee for Economic and Commercial Cooperation of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation) Tourism Outlook 2014. (February 2014), Comcec Coordination Office, available at: http://www.mod.gov.tr/Lists/RecentPublications/Attachments/47/COMCEC%20Tourism%20Outlook%202014.pdf (accessed 8 October 2014).
[7]
Damar, A.O.(2010). Turkiye’de Doviz Kurundan Fiyatlara Gecis Etkisinin Incelenmesi. (Professional Qualification Thesis), Ankara: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, General Directorate of Market Department.
[8]
Demir, M. O. (2012). Sosyal Bilimlerde Istatistiksel Analiz: SPSS 20 Kullanim Kilavuzu. Ankara: Detay Yayincilik.
[9]
Drutu, M. (2011). “The Effects of Economic Crisis on Tourism”. EIRP Proceedings, 6, 462-469.
[10]
Ekinci, A. (2013). “Turkiye Icin Optimal Kredi Buyume Orani Ne Olmalidir?” Bankacilar Dergisi 85, 81-91.
[11]
Enz, A.C, Kosova, R. and Lomanno, M. (2011). The Impact of Terrorism and Economic Shocks on U.S. Hotels. Cornell Hospitality Report, Publisher: Cornell University, Center for Hospitality Research.
[12]
Fayos-Solá, E. (2008). Tourism, Affected By Global Economic Crisis? Available at: http://www.wallstreet.ro/articol/Turism/49227/Turismul afectat-de-criza-economica-globala.html. (accessed 07 November 2014).
[13]
Gul, K. (2008). “Turizm Piyasasında Fiyat Olusumu”. Turizm Ekonomisi, Editors: G.N. Selcuk and T. Sahin, Istanbul:Lisans Yayincilik.
[14]
Gul, K. (2014). The role of credit as a financial tool on financing touristic consumption and application in Turkey. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 2(4), 231-239.
[15]
Henderson, C.J. (2006). Managing Tourism Crises. UK: Butterworth-Heinemann, Elsevier.
[16]
Hociung, I.G., Frâncu, L.G. (2012). Globalization - Tourism - Comunication, Triangle of Competitivity On The Market Affected By Economic Crisis. Theorethical And Applied Economics, 19/7 (572), 133-146. Available at: http://store.ectap.ro/articole/756.pdf. (accessed 10 November 2014).
[17]
Hoti, S., Mc Aler, M. and Shareef, R. (2005). Modelling International Tourism and Country Risk Spillovers for Cyprus and Malta. (Working Paper:516), SAFE and FIMARC Working Series, Cowan University.
[18]
Kapiki, S. T. (2011). “The Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism and Hospitality: Results from a Study in Greece”. Central European Review of Economics and Finance, 1(2), 1-20.
[19]
Kay, P. (2003). Consumer Motivation in a Tourism Context: Continuing the Work of Maslow. (Conceptual Papers / Marketing Theory) ANZMAC 2003 Conference Proceedings Adelaide 1-3 December 200, 600-614. Available at: http://www.anzmac.org/conference_archive/2003/papers/CON17_kayp.pdf (accessed 17 October 2014).
[20]
Keown-Mcmullan, C. (1997). Crisis: When Does A Molehill Become A Mountain? Disaster Prevention and Management, 6(1), 4 -10.
[21]
Kouame, A. and Reyes, M. I. (2011). “The Caribbean Region Beyond the 2008–09 Global Financial Crisis”. Options for the Caribbean after the Global Financial Crisis, Conference Bridgetown, 27-28 January 2011, Barbados.
[22]
Melvin, M. and Taylor, P.M. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis: Causes, Threats and Opportunities. Journal of International Money and Finance 28, 1243–1245.
[23]
Meng, X., Siriwardana M., Dollery B. and Mounter, S. (2010). “The Impact of the 2008 World Financial Crisis on Tourism and the Singapore Economy and Policy Responses: A CGE Analysis”. International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 1(1), 46-53.
[24]
Naudé , W. (2009). “The Financial Crisis of 2008 and the Developing Countries”. WIDER Discussion Papers, No. 2009/01, January 2009,World Institute for Development Economics (UNUWIDER).
[25]
Parasiz, I (1998). Iktisada Giriş, 5. Baski, Bursa: Ezgi Kitapevi Yayinlari.
[26]
Parasiz, I. (1993). Makro Ekonomi, 4. Baski, Bursa: Ezgi Kitapevi Yayinlari.
[27]
Petrevska, B. (2012). “Tourism and Crisis - Past Patterns and Future Challenges”. Conference Proceedings Vol. 2, International Conference “Trends and Challenges in the Economic Development”, Varna, Bulgaria, pp. 112-121.
[28]
Pforr, C. and Hosie, P. (2009). Crisis Management in the Tourism Industry. Ashgate, UK.
[29]
Pizam, A. (2009). The Global Financial Crisis and Its Impact on the Hospitality Industry. International Journal of Hospitality Management, 28(3), 301.
[30]
Ritchie, J. R. B., Molinar, C. M. A. and Frechtling, D. C. (2010). “Impacts of the World Recession and Economic Crisis on Tourism: North America”. Journal of Travel Research, 49(1), 5-15.
[31]
Santana, G. (2004). Crisis Management and Tourism. Journal of Travel and Tourism Marketing, 15(4), 299- 321.
[32]
Smeral, E. (2009). The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on European Tourism. Journal of Travel Research, 48(1), 3-13.
[33]
Song, H. And Lin, S. (2010). Impacts of The Financial and Economic Crisis on Tourism in Asia. Journal Of Travel Research, 49 (1), 16-30.
[34]
T.C. Kalkinma Bakanligi. (2014). 10. Kalkınma Raporu 2014-2018,Turizm: Ozel Ihtisas Komisyonu Raporu 2023, Ankara: ISBN 978-605-4667-59-8. Available at: http://www.kalkinma.gov.tr/Lists/zel%20htisas%20Komisyonu%20Raporlar/Attachments/233/TUR%C4%B0ZM%20%C3%96%C4%B0K.pdf (accessed 17 October 2014).
[35]
Turkisch Statistic Institute.(2014). TurkStat News Bulletin, 07 May 2014, Number:15890, available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15890 (accessed 22 May 2014).
[36]
TurkStat (2014). Yurticinde Ikamet Edenlerin, Seyahat, Geceleme Sayisi ve Harcamalari, 2012-2013, Hanehalki Yurtici Turizm, IV. Ceyrek 2013, (07 May 2014), TurkStat News Bulletin No 15890. Available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15890 (accessed 17 October 2014).
[37]
TurkStat.(2014). “Tourism Statistics”, 30 January 2014 dated TurkStat News Bulletin, Number: 15885 available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15885 (accessed 23 June 2014).
[38]
TurkStat.(2014). Turizm Geliri ve Gideri, IV. Ceyrek 2013, Turizm Istatistikleri, (30 January 2014), TurkStat News Bulletin, No 15885. Available at: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreHaberBultenleri.do?id=15885 (accessed 17 October 2014).
[39]
Uner, M.M., Sokmen, A. and Birkan, I. (2006). Influence of All Inclusive System in the Turkish Hospitality Industry. Anatolia: Turizm Arastirmalari Dergisi, 17(1), 35-50.
[40]
Ungoren, E., Algur, S. And Dogan, H. (2009). Konaklama ve Seyahat Acentalari Yoneticilerinin Her Sey Dahil Sistemine Yonelik Tutumlari: Antalya Ornegi KMU IIBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Arastirmalar Dergisi, Aralik 2009 Sayisi, 95-112. Available at: http://dergi.kmu.edu.tr/bilgi.aspx?ayrinti=39 (accessed 17 October 2014). Üngüren
[41]
Weiss, E., Weiss, R., Zuzık, J. and Kovanıč, L. (2013). “Impact of Economic Crisis on Tourism in Slovak Republic”. Acta Geoturistica, 4(1), 10-14.
[42]
World Bank. (2013). “World Development Indicators 2013”, available at: http://databank.worldbank.org/data/download/WDI-2013-ebook.pdf (accessed 10 March 2014).
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186