Causality and Cointegration Between Export, Import and Economic Growth: Evidence from Morocco
Journal of World Economic Research
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2015, Pages: 83-91
Received: May 22, 2015; Accepted: May 28, 2015; Published: Jun. 9, 2015
Views 4163      Downloads 131
Author
Aicha El Alaoui, Polyvalent Laboratory of Research and Development, (PLRD) BeniMellal, University Sultan My Slimane, BeniMellal, Morocco
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
This article investigates the relationship between export, import and economic growth using annual time series data for the Moroccan economy over the period 1980-2013. The cointegration technique has been employed to see the long run equilibrium relationship among variables. For this end, Granger causality test based on vector error correction model (VECM) has been adopted to see both short and long run causality among the variables. The cointegration results confirm the existence of the long-run relationship among these variables. For the short-run causality, the findings suggest (i) bidirectional causality between economic growth and import, (ii) unidirectional causality that run from export to import, and (iii) no-directional causality between economic growth and export.
Keywords
Economic Growth, Export, Import, Granger Causality, Cointegration, VECM
To cite this article
Aicha El Alaoui, Causality and Cointegration Between Export, Import and Economic Growth: Evidence from Morocco, Journal of World Economic Research. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2015, pp. 83-91. doi: 10.11648/j.jwer.20150403.14
References
[1]
ABBAS, S. (2012), Causality between Exports and Economic Growth: Investigating Suitable Trade Policy for Pakistan, Eurasian Journal of Business and Economics 2012, 5 (10), 91-98
[2]
Afzal, M. (2006), Causality between exports, world income and economic growth in Pakistan, International Economic Journal, 20(1), 63-77.
[3]
Ahmad, J. and Kwan, A.C.C., (1991), Causality between exports and economic growth: Empirical evidence from Africa, Economics Letters (Vol. 37), 243-48.
[4]
Balassa, B., (1985), Exports, Policy Choices, and Economic Growth in developing Countries After the 1973 oil Shock, Journal of Development Economics(18), 23-35.
[5]
Balassa, B.,(1988),The lessons of the Asian development: an overview, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol. 36 (3rd supplement).
[6]
Bouiyour, J. (2003), Trade and GDP Growth in Morocco: Short-run or long-run causality?, Revista Brasileira de Economia de Empresas, Brasilia V.3 N.2, 19-26.
[7]
Das, M. (2007), Absolute and Comparative Advantage, International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences 2ND Edition.http://www.skidmore.edu/~mdas/AbsoluteandComparativeAdvantage.pdf
[8]
Department of Studies and Financial Forecast of Ministry of Economy and Finance, Morocco, (2008), Foreign Trade Policy in Morocco: A Broad Assessment, http://www.finances.gov.ma/ Docs/2008/depf/4385_foreigntradepolicy_2.pdf
[9]
Demirhan, E., and Akcay, S. (2005), The causality relationship between export growth and economic growth: Empirical evidence from selected MENA countries, Iktisat Isletmeve Finans, 20(230), 124-31.
[10]
Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A., (1979), Distributions of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root, Journal of the American Statistical Association (74), 427-31.
[11]
Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981), Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root, Econometrica (Vol. 49), 1057-1072.
[12]
Din, M. (2004), Exports, imports, and economic growth in South Asia: Evidence using a multivariate time-series framework, Pakistan Development Review, 43(2), 105-24.
[13]
Elliot, G., Rothenberg, T.J., and Stock, J.H., (1996), Efficient tests for an autoregressive unit root, Econometrica (64), 813-836.
[14]
Granger, C.W.J., (1969), Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric and Cross-Spectral Method, Econometrica, Vol. 37, No. 3, 424-438.
[15]
Granger, C.W.J.,(1986), Development in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (Vol. 48), 213-228.
[16]
Heller, P.S., and Porter, R.C., (1978), Exports and growth: An empirical re-investigation, Journal of Development Economics 5: 191-193.
[17]
Johansen, S., (1988), Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 12, No. 2–3, 231–254.
[18]
Johansen, S., and Juselius, K., (1990), Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration-with Applications to the Demand for Money, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 52, No. 2, 169–210.
[19]
Jung, W.S. and Marshall, P.J., (1985), Exports, growth and causality in developing countries, Journal of Development Economics 18: l-12.
[20]
Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P.C.B., Schmidt, P., and Shin, Y., (1992), Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?, Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-78.Lewis, C.D., (1982) Industrial and Business Forecasting Methods, Butterworths, London.
[21]
Michaely, M., (1977), Exports and Growth, Journal of Development Economics 4, no.1 (March) 49-53
[22]
Ng, S. and Perron, P., (2001). Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power, Econometrica, Vol. 69, N° 6, 1519-54.
[23]
Phillips, P.C.B., and Perron, P., (1988), Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
[24]
Ramos, F. F. R. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis. Economic Modelling, 18, 613-623.
[25]
Report of Ministry of Foreign Trade, Morocco (2014), Analyse chiffrée du commerce extérieur marocain (2000-2013), www.mce.gov.ma
[26]
Saad. W. (2012), Causality between Economic Growth, Export, and External Debt Servicing: The Case of Lebanon, International Journal of Economics and Finance; Vol. 4, No.11, 134-143.
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186