Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Sanchiao Fault in Taipei City, Taiwan
The purpose of this study is to estimate maximum ground motions in Taipei city in the form of ShakeMaps as well as to assess potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Sanchiao active faults in this area. Analysis of seismic hazard potential becomes necessary in Taipei City for the Central Geological Survey (CGS) announced the Sanchiao active fault as Category II. The resultant ShakeMap patterns of maximum ground motion by using ground motion prediction equation (GMPE) method in a case of Mw6.88 show the areas of PGA above 400 gals are located in the northern and western parts of Taipei. Furthermore, the areas of PGA above 500 gals are located in these regions: Beitou, Shihlin, Datong, Wanhua, Jhongjheng, northern Neihu, western Jhongshan, western Daan and western Sinyi. In addition, seismic hazards in terms of PGA and PGV in the vicinity of the Sanchiao fault are not completely dominated by the Sanchiao fault. The main reason is that some areas located in the vicinity of the Sanchiao fault are marked with low site response amplification values of 0.55 and 0.67 for PGA and PGV, respectively. Finally, from estimation of potential human fatalities from scenario earthquakes on the Sanchiao active fault, it is noted that potential fatalities increase rapidly in people above age 45. Total fatalities reach a high peak in age groups of 55–64. Another to pay special attention is Taipei City has hundreds of thousands of households whose residences over 40 years old. When a strong earthquake strikes, these old houses are vulnerable to collapse. In light of the results of this study, the author urge both the municipal and central governments to take effective seismic hazard mitigation measures in the highly urbanized areas with a large number of old buildings in Taipei city. The results of this study will show which areas with higher earthquake hazard potential in Taipei City. It will help mitigate Taipei City earthquake disaster loss in the future, as well as provide critical information for emergency response plans.
Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Sanchiao Fault in Taipei City, Taiwan, Earth Sciences.
Vol. 8, No. 2,
2019, pp. 81-93.
CGS (Central Geological Survey), 2014: Active fault of Taiwan, Retrieved Mar. 15, 2014 from http://fault.moeacgs.gov.tw/MgFault/Home/pageMap?LFun=3
Yeh, C. H., C. H. Loh, and K. C. Tsai, 2006: Overview of Taiwan earthquake loss estimation system, Nat. Hazards 37 23-37, doi:10.1007/s11069-005-4654-z.
Liu, K. S., Y. B. Tsai, and B. S. Lin, 2013a: A Study on Fault Type and Site Effect (Vs30) Parameters in the Attenuation Relationships of Peak Ground Acceleration and Velocity in Ilan, Taiwan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 103, 1823-1845, doi:10.1785/0120120065.
Liu, K. S. Y. B. Tsai, and K. P. Chen, 2013b: Estimation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Taiwan Based on ShakeMaps, Nat Hazards Vol. 69, No3, 2233-2262, doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0804-x.
Liu, K. S. Y. B. Tsai, C. H. Chang and B. S. Lin, 2014: A Study of Site Effects in Ilan, Taiwan Based on Attenuation Relationships of Spectral Acceleration, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 104, 2467-2490, doi:10.1785/0120130238.
Liu, K. S., and Y. B. Tsai, 2015a: A refined Vs30 map for Taiwan based on attenuation relationships of ground motion. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., Vol. 26, No. 6, 631-653, doi: 10.3319/TAO.2015.05.11.01 (TC).
Liu, K. S., 2017, Estimation of Seismic Ground Motions and Attendant Potential Human Fatalities from Scenario Earthquakes on the Chishan Fault in Southern Taiwan. Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., Vol. 28, No. 5, 715-737.
Wald, D. J., V. Quitoriano, T. Heaton, and H. Kanamori, 1999: Relationships between peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity and Modified Mercalli Intensity in California, Earthquake Spectra 15 557-564, doi: 10.1193/1.1586058.
Liu, K. S. and Y. B. Tsai, 2016a: Microzonation of Seismic Hazards and Assessment of Potential Human Fatality in Chianan Area, Taiwan. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. Vol. 106, No1, 141-157, doi:10.1785/0120150182.
Tsai, Y. B., T. M. Yu, H. L. Chao, and C. P. Lee, 2001: Spatial Distribution and Age Dependence of Human-Fatality Rates from the Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake of 21 September 1999, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91 1298-1309, doi:10.1785/0120000740.
Taipei City Government (2016). Taipei City Disaster Prevention and Relief Plan. Taipei: Taipei City Government. Retrieved Dec. 18, 2016 fromhttp://www.eoc.gov.taipei/taipeicityems1_public/Org/DisasterPrevention.
National Statistics, Republic of China (Taiwan), 2014: Age structure of the resident population by township/city/district. Retrieved Apr. 21, 2014 from http://eng.stat.gov.tw/mp.asp? mp=5.
Liu, K. S. and Y. B. Tsai, 2014: Microzonation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Tainan Area, Journal of Architure. 89, 153-176, doi:10.3966/101632122014090089009.
Liu, K. S., and Y. B. Tsai, 2015b: Microzonation of seismic hazard potential in Chiayi area. Journal of the Chinese Institute of Civil and Hydraulic Engineering. V27, No4, 263-275. Doi: 10.6653/JoCICHE.
Liu, K. S. and Y. B. Tsai, 2016b: Microzonation of Seismic Hazard Potential in Kaohsiung Area, Journal of Architure. 96, 153-176.
Wells D. L. and K. J. Coppersmith, 1994: New Empirical Relationships among Magnitude, Rupture Length, Rupture Width, Rupture Area, and Surface Displacement, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 84, 974-1002.
Shin, T. C., and T. L. Teng (2001). An overview of the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91, 895–913.
Liu, K. S. and Y. B. Tsai, 2005: Attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration and velocity for crustal earthquakes in Taiwan, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 95, 1045-1058, doi:10.1785/0120040162.
Liu, K. S., T. C. Shin and Y. B. Tsai, 1999: A free field strong motion network in Taiwan: TSMIP, TAO, Vol 10, No 2, 377-396.
Coburn, A., and R. Spence, 1992: Earthquake Protection, John Wiley & Sons, Chichester, U.K., 355 pp.
Yu, T. M., 2004: The Relations of Earthquake Disasters with Respect to Surface Fault Rupture, Crustal Movement, and Strong Ground Motion: Using Two Central Taiwan Earthquakes in 1935 and 1999 as Examples. Ph. D. Thesis, National Central University, Chungli, Taiwan, 209 pp. (in Chinese with English abstract).
Pai, C. H. Y. M. Tien, and T. L. Teng, 2007: A study of the human-fatality rate in near-fault regions using the Victim Attribute Database, Nat Hazards Vol. 42, No 1, 19-35.
Bolt B. A. and N. A. Abrahamson, 2004: Estimation of strong seismic ground motion, in Internation handbook of earthquake and engineering seismology, William Lee (ed.) Academic Press, pp. 983- 001.