Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid
Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 3, Issue 6, December 2015, Pages: 257-262
Received: Nov. 13, 2015;
Accepted: Nov. 25, 2015;
Published: Dec. 14, 2015
Views 5454 Downloads 102
Bustami , Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
Hadi Irawansyah, Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
M. D. H. Gamal, Department of Mathematics, University of Riau, Pekanbaru, Indonesia
Follow on us
This paper discusses the Holt-Winters forecasting method that takes into account the effect of Eid. This method is used to predict the total domestic passengers departing in five major ports in Indonesia. Then a comparison is carried out between Holt-Winters method and Holt-Winters method that takes into account the effect of Eid. The comparison is done by comparing the mean square error obtained by both methods of forecasting, and it shows that the modified method provides better forcasting results.
Forecasting, Holt-Winters Method, Effect of Eid, Mean Square Error
To cite this article
M. D. H. Gamal,
Holt-Winters Forecasting Method That Takes into Account the Effect of Eid, Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
Vol. 3, No. 6,
2015, pp. 257-262.
Copyright © 2015 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Bell, W. R. and S. C. Hillmer. (2003). Modeling Time Series with Calender Variation. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 78, pp. 526-534.
Hillier, F. S. and G. J. Lieberman. (2001). Introduction to Operations Research, 7th Ed. McGraw-Hill Higher Education. New York.
Jin, L. L. and S. L. Tian. (2003). Modeling Lunar Calender Holiday Effect in Taiwan. Taiwan Economics Policy and Forecast, 33, pp 1-37.
Hyndman, R. J., A. B. Koehler, J. K Ord, and R. D. Snyder. (2008). Forecasting with Exponential Smoothing-The State Approach. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg.
Markidakis, S., S. C. Wheelwright, and V. E. McGee. (1998). Forecasting: Methods and Applications, 3rdEd. Jhon Wiley & Sons. New York.
Monsell, B. C. (2007). Issues in Modeling and Adjusting Calender Effects in Economics Time Series. Paper presented at the ICES-III, June 18-21, 2007, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.
Montgomery, D. C., C. L. Jenning, and M. Kulahci. (2008). Introduction to Time Series Analysis and Forecasting. Wiley-Interscience. New Jersey.
Rasmussen, R. (2003). On Time Series Data and Optimal Parameters. Omega, 32, pp. 111-120.
Shuja’, N., M. A. Lazim, and Y. B. Wah. (2007). Moving Holiday Effects Adjustment for Malaysian Economic Time Series. Journal of Department of Statistics Malaysia, 1, pp. 35-50.
Zhang, X., C. H. McLaren, and C. C. S. Leung. (2003). An Easter Proximity Effect: Modeling and Adjusment. Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 43, pp. 269-280.