Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 5, Issue 1, February 2017, Pages: 54-59
Received: Jan. 3, 2017;
Accepted: Jan. 19, 2017;
Published: Mar. 1, 2017
Views 1798 Downloads 116
Mohammad Anisur Rahman, Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh
Sunny Mohammed Mostafa Kamal, Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh
Mohammad Maruf Billah, Department of Mathematics, Islamic University, Kushtia, Bangladesh
Rainfall is one of the most common natural disasters in Bangladesh which rigorously affect agro-based economy and people’s livelihood in almost every year. The main objective of this study is to examine the variation, prediction and trend of rainfall in Bangladesh. The data for this study have been extracted from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD). Data used in this study were collected from 31 rain gauge stations located in different parts of the country for a period of 40 years (1975-2014). Linear regression model is used to understand the variation, trend and prediction of rainfall for annual and various climatic seasons such as pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. We also estimated mean rainfall with standard deviation of pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. Finding reveals that, the trends of mean rainfall of annual, pre-monsoon and winter have decreased, whereas rainfall remained unchanged in monsoon season and has increased in post-monsoon. Data predicts lesser rainfall in the period 1975, 1989, 1992, 1994, 2004, 2009, 2012, 2013 and 2014 years. These results indicate lesser precipitation in future over Bangladesh. The predicted rainfall amount from the best fitted model was compared with the observed data. The predicted values show reasonably good result. Thus the model can be used for future rainfall prediction. It is expected that this long term prediction will help the decision makers in efficient scheduling of flood prediction, urban planning, and rainwater harvesting and crop management. Classification of rainfalls in a systematic way is therefore critical in order to take necessary actions toward drought mitigation and sustainable development.
Mohammad Anisur Rahman,
Sunny Mohammed Mostafa Kamal,
Mohammad Maruf Billah,
Prediction and Trends of Rainfall Variability over Bangladesh, Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics.
Vol. 5, No. 1,
2017, pp. 54-59.
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. In: R. K. Pachauri and A. Reisinger, Eds., Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. In: S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H. L. Miller, Eds., Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. In: M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden and C. E. Hanson, Eds., Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Joeri, R., William, H., Jason, H. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Keywan, R., Mathews, B. M., Tatsuya, H., Kejun, J. and Malte, M. (2011), “Emission Pathways Consistent with a 2°C Global Temperature Limit”, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 01, P. 413-418.
Spencer, R. W. (2008), “The Discovery of Global Warming. American Institute of Physics”, Harvard University Press, Cambridge.
Alamgir, M., S. Shahid, M. K. Hazarika, S. Nashrrullah, S. B. Harun, and S. Shamsudin, (2015), “Analysis of Meteorological Drought Pattern during Different Climatic and CroppingSeasons in Bangladesh”, Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA), P. 1-13. DOI: 10.1111/jawr. 12276
Devkota L. P. (2006), “Rainfall over SAARC region with special focus on tele-connections and long range forecasting of Bangladesh monsoon rainfall, monsoon forecasting with a limited area numerical weather prediction system”, Report No-19, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Mannan M. A., M. A. M. Chowdhury and S. Karmakar (2016), “ Prediction of Rainfall over Southeastern part of Bangladesh during Monsoon Season”, International Journal of Integrated Sciences & Technology, Vol. 2, P. 73-82.
Imon, A. H. M. R, M. C. Roy and S. K. Bhattacharjee (2012), “Prediction of Rainfall Using Logistic Regression”, PJSOR, Vol. 8, No. 3, P. 655-667.
Nicholson, S. E. (2000), “The nature of rainfall variability over Africa on time scales of decades to millennia,” Global and Planetary Change. Vol. 3, No. 26, P. 137–158.
Nicholson, S. E. and J. P. Grist, (2001), “A conceptual model for understanding rainfall variability in the West African Sahel on interannual and interdecadal timescales”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 21, No. 14, P. 1733–1757. doi: 10.1002/joc.648.
Rodrigo, S., M. J. Esteban-Parra, D. Pozo-Va ´zquez and Y. Castro-Dı´ez, (2000) “Rainfall variability in southern Spain on decadal to centennial time scales”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 20, No. 7, P. 721–732.
Rotstayn, L. D., Lohmann, Ulrike, (2002), “ Tropical rainfall trends and the indirect aerosol effect”, Journal of Climate, Vol. 15, P. 2103–2116.
Murphy, B. F., Timbal, Bertrand, (2007), “A review of recent climate variability and climate change in southeastern Australia”, International Journal of Climatology, doi: 10.1002/joc.1627.
Nicholls, N., Lavery, Beth, (2006), “Australian rainfall trends during the twentieth century”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 12, No. 2, P. 153–163. doi: 10.1002/joc.3370120204.
Islam, T., S. Saha, A. A. Evan, N. Halder, S. C. Dey, (2016), “Monthly Weather Forecasting through ANN Model: A Case Study in Barisal, Bangladesh”, International Journal of Advanced Research in Computer and Communication Engineering, Vol. 5, No. 6, Copyright to IJARCCE DOI 10.17148/IJARCCE.2016.5601 1
Rahman, M. R., M. Salehin, J. Matsumoto, (1997), “Trends of monsoon rainfall pattern in Bangladesh, Bangladesh Journal of Water Resources, Vol. 14, No. 18, P. 121-138.
Shahid, S., (2009), “Rainfall variability and the trends of wet and dry periods in Bangladesh, International Journal of Climatology.
Ahmed, R. and S. Karmakar, (1993), “Arrival and withdrawal dates of the summer monsoonin Bangladesh”, International Journal of Climatology, Vol. 13, P. 727.
Islam, M. N. and H. Uyeda, (2008), “Use of TRMM in determining the climatic characteristics ofrainfall over Bangladesh, Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 108, No. 3, P. 264.
McLachlan, G. J. and T. Krishnan, (1997), “The EM Algorithm and Extensions”, Wiley, New York City, New York.
Kannan, M., S. Prabhakaran and P. Ramachandran, (2013), “Rainfall Forecasting Using DataMining Technique”, International Journal of Engineering and Technology, Vol. 2, No. 6, P. 397.
Roy, M. (2013), “Time Series, Factors and Impacts Analysis of Rainfall in North-Eastern Part in Bangladesh”, International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, Vol 3, No. 8, P. 01.