Short-Term Forecasting of Nigeria Inflation Rates Using Seasonal ARIMA Model
Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 4, Issue 3, June 2016, Pages: 101-107
Received: Mar. 29, 2016; Accepted: Apr. 29, 2016; Published: May 25, 2016
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Ekpenyong Emmanuel John, Department of Statistics, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture, Umudike, Abia State, Nigeria
Udoudo Unyime Patrick, Department of Statistics, Akwa Ibom State Polytechnic, Ikot Osurua, Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria
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This paper considers the analyses and forecasting of the monthly All-items (Year-on-Year change) Inflation Rates in Nigeria. The data used for this study are monthly All-items Inflation rates from 2000 to 2015 collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria. Analyses reveal that the Inflation rates of Nigeria are seasonal and follow a seasonal ARIMA Model, (0, 1, 0) x (0, 1, 1)12. The model is shown to be adequate and the forecast obtained from it are shown to agree closely with the original observations.
Inflation Rates, Seasonal Time Series, SARIMA Model, Forecasting
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Ekpenyong Emmanuel John, Udoudo Unyime Patrick, Short-Term Forecasting of Nigeria Inflation Rates Using Seasonal ARIMA Model, Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 4, No. 3, 2016, pp. 101-107. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20160403.13
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