Modelling and Forecasting Malaria Mortality Rate using SARIMA Models (A Case Study of Aboh Mbaise General Hospital, Imo State Nigeria)
Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 2, Issue 1, February 2014, Pages: 31-41
Received: Jan. 30, 2014; Published: Mar. 20, 2014
Views 4048      Downloads 380
Ekezie Dan Dan, Department of Statistics, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria
Opara Jude, Department of Statistics, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria
Okenwe Idochi, Department of Statistics, Rivers State Polytecnic, Bori, Rivers State, Nigeria
Article Tools
Follow on us
This paper examined the modeling and forecasting malaria mortality rate using SARIMA Models. Among the most effective approaches for analysing time series data is the method propounded by Box and Jenkins, the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). In this paper, we employed Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for malaria mortality rate for the period January 1996 to December 2013 with a total of 216 data points. The model obtained in this paper was used to forecast monthly malaria mortality rate for the upcoming year 2014. The forecasted results will help Government and medical professionals to see how to maintain steady decrease of malaria mortality in other to combat the predicted rise in mortality rate envisaged in some months.
ARIMA Model, SARIMA Model, Forecasting, ARMA Model, Box-Jenkins Methods, Malaria Mortality, Akaike Information Criteria, Bayesian Information Criterion
To cite this article
Ekezie Dan Dan, Opara Jude, Okenwe Idochi, Modelling and Forecasting Malaria Mortality Rate using SARIMA Models (A Case Study of Aboh Mbaise General Hospital, Imo State Nigeria), Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 2, No. 1, 2014, pp. 31-41. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20140201.15
Adebola P.A. and Okereke R.W. (2007). Increasing Burden of childwood severe Malaria in a Nigeria Tertiary Hospital from 2000 to 2005. An unpublished research work.
Akaike, H. (1974). A New Look at the Statistical Model Identification. IEEE Transactions on Automatic Control 19 (6): 716-723.
Ayeni, A. O., (2011). Malaria Morbidity in Akure, Southwest Nigeria: A Temporal Observation in a Climate Change Scenario. Trends Applied Sci. Res., 6: 488-494
Ayodele J.; Oluyemi S.; Amos P.; and Tuoyo O (2007). Quantifying the Economic Burden of Malaria using the Willingness to Pay Approach. An Article submitted to the Department of Economics, University of Illorin, Illorin, Nigeria
Baird, J.K.; Owusu Agyei S; Utz G.C.; Koram, K; Barcus M.J.; Jones, T.R.; Fryauff, D.F.; Binka, F.N.; Hoffman, S.L.; Nkruma, F.N. (2002). Seasonal Malaria attack rates in infants and young children in Northern Ghana. Naval Medical Research Center, Silver Spring, Maryland, USA.
Box, G. E. P and Jenkins, G.M., (1976). "Time series analysis: „Forecasting and control," Holden-Day, San Francisco.
Durueke A.P. (2005). A Research on the incidence, management and bionomc of Malaria in children under 5 years of age in parts of Isiala Mbano L.G.A., Imo State, Nigeria. Unpublished research work.
Fleiss, J . L. (1973). Statistical Methods for Rates and Proportions. John Wiley and Sons, New York.
Fritzer, F., Gabriel, M. and Johann, S. (2002). "Forecasting Austrian HICP and its Components using VAR and ARIMA Models," Working Papers 73, Oesterreichische National bank (Austrian Central Bank).
Gerristsen, A.; Kruger P; Van der Leo, M. and Grobusch, M. (2008). ‘Malaria incidence in limpopo provincem, South Africa, 1998 – 2007’, Malaria Journal 7(1). URL:http://www.malariajournal. com/content/7/1/162.
Gomez V., and Maravall A., (1998.) "Automatic Modelling Methods for Univariate Series," Banco de España Working Papers 9808, Banco de España.
Greenwood, B.M.; Bradley, A.K.; Greenwood, A.M.; Byass, P.; Jammeh, K.; Marsh, K.; Tulloch, S.; Old eld, F.S. and Hayes, R. (2009). ‘Mortality and morbidity from malaria among children in a rural area of the gambia, West Africa,’ American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 81 (3), 478 – 486.
Hamidreza M. and Leila S. (2012). Using SARFIMA model to study and predict the Iran’s oil supply. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy. Vol.2, No.1, 2012, pp.41-49.
Hardeo, S. and Mohammed I.A. (2000). The Analysis of Variance. Sheridan Books, Inc; Birkhauser Boston.
Jeffrey J., (1990). "Business forecasting Methods". Atlantic Publishers.
Jack H.R, Bond M.T., and Webb J.R, (1989). "The Inflation- Hedging Effectiveness of Real Estate". Journal of Real Estate Research, Vol.4. Pp. 45-56.
Koram, K.A. and Molyneux, M.E. (2007). ‘When is "Malaria" Malaria? The Dierent Burdens of Malaria Infection, Malaria Disease, and Malaria-Like Illnesses’. American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene 77 (6 Suppl).
Korenromp, E.; Kiniboro, B. and WHO (2007). Forecasting Malaria incidence estimates at Burndi country level for the year 1997 to 2003 – draft report. estimations2.pdf.
Leila S. and Masoud Y. (2012). An Empirical Study of the Usefulness of SARFIMA models in Energy Science. International Journal of Energy Science. IJES Vol.2 No.2 2012.
Mills, A.; Lubell, Y. and Hanson, K. (2008). "Malaria eradication: the economic, financial and institutional challenge", Malaria Journal 7 (Suppl 1), S11. URL: /7/S1/S11
Nomeh F.O. (2008): Statistical Analysis on malaria mortality in Enugu State Nigeria. An unpublished B.Sc. Project submitted to the Department of Statistics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Anambra State.
Opara K.R. (2001). Effect of Malaria during pregnancy on mortality in Abia State Nigeria between 1993 and 1999. An unpublished B.Sc. Project submitted to the department of Statistics, Abia State University, Uturu, Abia State.
Rudiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer, (1993). "Moderate Inflation", The Bank Economic Review, Vol.7, Issue 1, Pp.1-44.
Trevor, W. (2010). Applied Business Statistics, Methods and Excel-Based Application. EBLS/Clarendo Press Oxford London.
Yeshiwondim A.K; Gopal, S.; Hailemarian A.T.; Dengela, D.O.; Patel, H.P.: Spatial analysis of Malaria incidence at the village level in areas with unstable transmission in Ethiopia. Int. J. Health Geogr 2009, 8:5. Pubmed Abstract.
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186