Prediction of Academic Manpower System of a Polytechnic Institution in Nigeria
Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics
Volume 1, Issue 5, December 2013, Pages: 54-61
Received: Oct. 12, 2013; Published: Nov. 10, 2013
Views 3176      Downloads 204
Ogbogbo, G. O., Department of statistics Delta State Polytechnic, Otefe-Oghara, Nigeria
Ebuh, G. U., Department of statistics Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
Aronu, C. O., Department of statistics Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka, Nigeria
Article Tools
Follow on us
This study is on makovian approach in studying the behaviour of the academic staff grade transition of a Polytechnic institution in Nigeria. The objective of this study is to determine the proportion of staff recruited, promoted and withdrawn from the various grade levels in the institution over the years and also forecast the expected manpower structure of the institution for 2014/2015 session. Secondary data obtained from the Personnel Department of Delta State Polytechnic, Oghara for 2006/07 – 2011/12 sessions was used to evaluate the method. The findings from the analysis showed that the academic staff grade transition flow is stationary over the observed time period. Also, it was predicted that at the beginning of the 2014/15 session, that the expected staff structure of Delta State Polytechnic Otefe-Oghara will consist of 2 Assistant Lecturer’s, 15 Lecturer’s III, 11 Lecturer’s II, 12 Lecturer’s I, 9 Senior Lecturer’s, 7 Principal Lecturer’s and 7 Chief Lecturer’s; if the current recruitment and promotion policies in the institution remain unchanged. The predicted distributed structure of academic staff of Delta state Polytechnic for 2014/15 session was observed to be approximately normally distributed.
Promoted, Grade, Staff, Lecturer, Session, Recruitment
To cite this article
Ogbogbo, G. O., Ebuh, G. U., Aronu, C. O., Prediction of Academic Manpower System of a Polytechnic Institution in Nigeria, Science Journal of Applied Mathematics and Statistics. Vol. 1, No. 5, 2013, pp. 54-61. doi: 10.11648/j.sjams.20130105.14
Harbison, F., ."A System Analysis Approach to Human Resources Development Planning" In: Coombs, P.H. (Ed), Manpower Aspects of Educational Planning. UNESCO, IIEP; Paris. Pp. 7 – 9, 1968.
Škulj, D., Vehovar, V., and Štamfelj, D., "The Modelling of Manpower by Markov Chains – A Case Study of the Slovenian Armed Forces." Informatica 32, 289–291, 2008.
Craig, B. A. and Sendi, P., "Estimation of the Transition Matrix of a Discrete-Time Markov Chain." Health Economics, 11: 33-42, 2002.
Tran, H. and Carmichael, D. G., "Stationarity of the Transition Probabilities in the markov Chain Formulation of Owner payments on Projects." Anziam Journal, 53: pages 69-89, 2012.
Ossai, E. O. and uche P. I., "Maintainability of Departmentalized Manpower Structures in Markov Chain Model." Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 10 (2), Pp. 295 – 302, 2009.
Ezepue, P. O., "Modelling the Structure and Career Prospect of Academic Staff in University College, A Markov Chain Approach." Journal of Nigeria Statistical Association (JNSA) Volume 7, No. 1., 1991.
Khnoog, C.M., "An Integrated System Framework and Analysis Methodology for Manpower Planning." International Journal of Manpower Vol. 17, Pp. 26 – 46, 1996.
Bowel, A., " A Guide to Manpower Planning." The Macmillan Press Ltd, London. 1974.
Harbison, F., "Human Resources as the Wealth of Nations." Oxford University Press, New York, 1973.
Chukwu, W. I. E., "A Theoretical Markov Chain Model for Evaluating Correlational Method Applied to People with Criminal Tendencies." A paper presented to the Department of Statistics University of Swaziland Southern Africa during their Statistical week, 1999.
Van Houdt, B. and Alfa, A.S., "Response Time in a Tandem Queue with Blocking, Markovian Arrivals and Phase-Type Services." Operations Research Letters, 33, pp. 373-381, 2005.
Lilien, L. G. and Rao, A. G., "A Model for Manpower Management." Institute of Management Sciences, 21(12), Pp. 1447-1457, 1975.
Taylor H. M. and Karlin S., "An Introduction to Stochastic Modeling (Third Edition)." Academic Press limited, London, pages 95 – 417, 1998.
Bhat, U.N., "Elements of Applied Stochastic Process." John Wiley and Sons, New York, pages 56-120, 1971.
Bartholomew, D.J., Forbes, A.F., and McClean, S.I., "Statistical Techniques for Manpower Planning," John Wiley & Sons, Pages 14-22, 1991.
Uche, P.I., "On Stochastic Models for Educational Planning." International Journal of Math ed. Science Tech. 9(3), pp. 333 – 342, 1978.
Golan, A., and Vogel, S. J., "Estimation of Non–stationary Social Accounting Matrix Coefficients with Supply Side Information." Economic Systems Research, 12, 2000.
Karantininis, K., "Information Based Estimates for the Non-Stationary Transition Probability Matrix: An Application to the Danish Pork Industry." Unit of Economics Working Papers (1): 1-23.
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
Tel: (001)347-983-5186