Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple and Quadratic Regression Models
American Journal of Software Engineering and Applications
Volume 6, Issue 3, June 2017, Pages: 99-104
Received: Jan. 30, 2017;
Accepted: Mar. 30, 2017;
Published: Jun. 23, 2017
Views 3325 Downloads 263
Isaac Amazuilo Ezenugu, Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria
Swinton Chisom Nwokonko, Department of Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Imo State University, Owerri, Nigeria
Idorenyin Markson, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
In this paper statistical analysis of the residential electricity demand in Nigeria is presented Particularly, multiple regression model with one period lagged and quadratic regression model without interactions were used to estimate residential electricity consumption and to forecast long- term residential demand for electricity based on annual data over the period 2006–2014. For the regression models’ explanatory variable, population which is a socio economic variable is used along with temperature which is a climatic variable are used. The results showed that the quadratic regression model without interactions was more accurate due to the fact that it has the highest coefficient of determinant of 93.87 and the least value of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 52.77as compared to the multiple regression model with one period lagged of the dependent variable with coefficient of determinant of 93.50 and RMSE of 53.16. The quadratic regression model was then selected and used to forecast the residential electricity demand in Nigeria for the years 2015 to 2029.
Isaac Amazuilo Ezenugu,
Swinton Chisom Nwokonko,
Modelling and Forecasting of Residential Electricity Consumption in Nigeria Using Multiple and Quadratic Regression Models, American Journal of Software Engineering and Applications.
Vol. 6, No. 3,
2017, pp. 99-104.
Othieno, H., & Awange, J. (2015). Energy Resources in Africa: distribution, opportunities and challenges. Springer.
Otieno, H. O., & Awange, J. L. (2006). Energy resources in East Africa: Opportunities and challenges. Springer Science & Business Media.
Ahuja, D., & Tatsutani, M. (2009). Sustainable energy for developing countries. SAPI EN. S. Surveys and Perspectives Integrating Environment and Society, (2.1).
Onuoha, F. C., Ichite, C. M., & George, T. A. Political, Economic and Security Challenges Facing President Buhari. Technical Report Of Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Mohammed M. A., Babagana G., Bitrus K. H. and Mustapha A. H. (2015) CHALLENGES TO ENERGY SUSTAINABILITY IN NIGERIA AS A DEVELOPING NATION AND THE WAY FORWARD. APPLIED RESEARCH JOURNAL. Vol.1, Issue, 2, pp.46-50, April, 2015
Ogbeidi, M. M. (2012). Political leadership and corruption in Nigeria since 1960: A socio-economic analysis. Journal of Nigeria Studies, 1(2).
Dike, V. E. (2010). Review of the challenges facing the Nigerian economy: Is national development possible without technological capability. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12(5), 95-112.
Kennedy-Darling, J., Hoyt, N., Murao, K., & Ross, A. (2008). The energy crisis of Nigeria: an overview and implications for the future. The University of Chicago, Chicago.
Ofoegbu, G. N., & Emengini, S. E. (2013). Recovery of Cost of Electricity Supply in the Nigerian Power Sector. University 0f Nigeria, Enugu Campus, Enugu State, Nigeria.
Adoghe, A. U., Odigwe, I. A., & Igbinovia, S. O. (2009). Power Sector Reforms-Effects on Electric Power Supply Reliability and Stability in Nigeria. International Journal of Electrical and Power Engineering, 3(1), 36-42.
Oyedepo, S. O. (2013). Energy in perspective of sustainable development in Nigeria. Sustainable Energy, 1(2), 14-25.
Hove, M., Ngwerume, E., & Muchemwa, C. (2013). The urban crisis in Sub-Saharan Africa: A threat to human security and sustainable development. Stability: International Journal of Security and Development, 2(1).
Oyedepo, S. O. (2012). Energy and sustainable development in Nigeria: the way forward. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 2(1), 1.
Maxwell U. N., Nnena F. E., Uloma J.  Comparative Analysis of Electricity Consumption among Residential, Commercial and Industrial Sectors of the Nigeria’s Economy. Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy, Vol.4, No.3, 2014
Sambo, A. S., Garba, B., Zarma, I. H., & Gaji, M. M. (2012). Electricity generation and the present challenges in the Nigerian power sector. Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 6(7), 1050.
Ondiege, P. E. T. E. R., Moyo, J. M., & Verdier-Chouchane, A. U. D. R. E. Y. (2013). Developing Africa’s infrastructure for enhanced competitiveness. In World Economic Forum, the African Competitiveness Report (Vol. 2013, pp. 69-92).
Scott-Emuakpor, A. (2010). The evolution of health care systems in Nigeria: Which way forward in the twenty-first century. Nigerian Medical Journal, 51(2), 53.
Onochie, U. P., Egware, H. O., & Eyakwanor, T. O. (2015). The Nigeria Electric Power Sector (Opportunities and Challenges). Journal of Multidisciplinary Engineering Science and Technology (JMEST), 2(4).
OLUSEGUN, A. O. (2016). PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP AS A TOOL FOR INFRASTRUCTURAL GROWTH IN NIGERIA: A FOCUS ON NIGERIA’S ELECTRCITY SECTOR.
Ogunleye, E. K. (2016). Political economy of Nigerian power sector reform (No. UNU-WIDER Research Paper wp2016-009). World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
Joseph, I. O. (2014). Issues and challenges in the Privatized Power Sector in Nigeria. Journal of Sustainable Development Studies, 6(1), 161.
Folorunso, O., & Olowu, T. The Nigerian Power System Till Date: A Review. International Journal of Advance Foundation and Research in Science & Engineering (IJAFRSE), 1(5).
Forst, F. G. (1992). Forecasting restaurant sales using multiple regression and Box-Jenkins analysis. Journal of Applied Business Research, 8(2), 15.
Goel, A., & Goel, A. (2014). Regression Based Forecast of Electricity Demand of New Delhi. International Journal of Scientific and Research Publications, 437.
Benli, T. O. (2016). A Comparison of Nineteen Various Electricity Consumption Forecasting Approaches and Practicing to Five Different Households in Turkey. arXiv preprint arXiv:1607.05660.
Owda, H. M., Omoniwa, B., Shahid, A. R., & Ziauddin, S. (2014). Using Artificial Neural Network Techniques for Prediction of Electric Energy Consumption. arXiv preprint arXiv:1412.2186.
Mati, A. A., Gajoga, B. G., Jimoh, B., Adegobye, A., & Dajab, D. D. (2009). Electricity demand forecasting in Nigeria using time series model. The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology, 10(2), 479-485.
Wang, Y., Zhang, Y., Zhang, F., & Yi, J. (2013). Robust quadratic regression and its application to energy-growth consumption problem. Mathematical Problems in Engineering, 2013.
Alkan, Ö., Genç, A., Oktay, E., & Çelik, A. K. (2013). Electricity Consumption Analysis Using Spline Regression Models: The Case of a Turkish Province. Asian Social Science, 9(7), 231-240.
Krese, G., Prek, M., & Butala, V. (2012). Analysis of building electric energy consumption data using an improved cooling degree day method. Strojniški vestnik-Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 58(2), 107-114.
Kumru, M., & Kumru, P. Y. (2015, March). Calendar-based short-term forecasting of daily average electricity demand. In Industrial Engineering and Operations Management (IEOM), 2015 International Conference on (pp. 1-5). IEEE.
National Bureau of Statistics, 2015.
Agboola, B. M., & Adeyemi, J. (2013). Projecting Enrollment for Effective Academic Staff Planning in Nigerian Universities. Educational Planning, 21(1).