Evaluation of Moving Average Model and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) for Prediction of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria
American Journal of Software Engineering and Applications
Volume 6, Issue 3, June 2017, Pages: 67-73
Received: Jan. 29, 2017; Accepted: Mar. 30, 2017; Published: Jun. 12, 2017
Views 1867      Downloads 54
Authors
Idorenyin Markson, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Mfonobong Charles Uko, Department of Electrical/Electronic and Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Aneke Chikezie, Department of Electrical/Electronic and Computer Engineering, University of Uyo, Uyo, Nigeria
Article Tools
Follow on us
Abstract
In this paper, evaluation of moving average model and autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) for prediction of industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria is presented. Industrial electricity consumption data obtained from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for the year 1979-2014 is used to determine the model parameters and prediction performance in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Coefficient of determination r2 values. The results show that the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model with coefficient of determination value of 66.0% and RMSE value of 68.628 gives better prediction performance than the Moving Average with coefficient of determination value of 42.6% and value of 84.749. However, coefficient of determination value of 66% is not particularly adequate for acceptable prediction accuracy. In that case, for better prediction accuracy for the industrial electricity consumption in Nigeria, other models may need to be examined apart from the two models considered in this paper.
Keywords
Moving Average Model, Autoregressive Moving Average Model, Industrial Electricity Consumption, Prediction Accuracy, Time Series Models
To cite this article
Idorenyin Markson, Mfonobong Charles Uko, Aneke Chikezie, Evaluation of Moving Average Model and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA) for Prediction of Industrial Electricity Consumption in Nigeria, American Journal of Software Engineering and Applications. Vol. 6, No. 3, 2017, pp. 67-73. doi: 10.11648/j.ajsea.20170603.12
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Authors retain the copyright of this article.
This article is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
References
[1]
Faridi, M. Z., & Murtaza, G. (2014). Disaggregate energy consumption, agricultural output and economic growth in Pakistan.
[2]
Onakoya, A. B., Onakoya, A. O., Jimi-Salami, O. A., & Odedairo, B. O. (2013). Energy consumption and Nigerian economic growth: An empirical analysis. European Scientific Journal, 9(4).
[3]
Sambo, A. S. (2008). Matching electricity supply with demand in Nigeria. International Association of Energy Economics, 4, 32-36.
[4]
Essien, A. U., & Igweonu, E. I. (2014). Coal based generation: a solution to Nigeria electricity problem. Int Archive Appl Sci Technol, 5(1), 74-80.
[5]
Sambo, A. S., Garba, B., Zarma, I. H., & Gaji, M. M. (2012). Electricity generation and the present challenges in the Nigerian power sector. Journal of Energy and Power Engineering, 6(7), 1050.
[6]
Oluwalami, A. S. Review of Sustainable Energy and Electricity Generation from Non-Rewneable Energy Sources. Journal of Energy Technologies and Policy Vol.5, No.1, 2015
[7]
Chukwu, P. U., Ibrahim, I. U., Ojosu, J. O., & Iortyer, H. A. (2014). Sustainable energy future for Nigeria: the role of engineers. Journal of Sustainable Development Studies, 6(2), 242.
[8]
Oyedepo, S. O. (2012). Energy and sustainable development in Nigeria: the way forward. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 2(1), 15.
[9]
Chong, C., Ni, W., Ma, L., Liu, P., & Li, Z. (2015). The use of energy in Malaysia: Tracing energy flows from primary source to end use. Energies, 8(4), 2828-2866.
[10]
Barbiroli G. (2009 ) Principles of Sustainable Development - Volume II. Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS). Available at: http://www.eolss.net/ebooklib/ebookcontents/e1-46a-themecontents.pdf Accessed on January 28th 2017.
[11]
Seidler, R., & Bawa, K. S. (2016). Dimensions of sustainable development. RELIGION, CULTURE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT-Volume III, 161.
[12]
Khatib, H. (2012). IEA world energy outlook 2011—A comment. Energy policy, 48, 737-743.
[13]
Masjuki, H., Jahirul, M., Saidur, R., Rahim, N., Mekhilef, S., Ping, H., & Zamaluddin, M. (2006). Energy and electricity consumption analysis of malaysian industrial sector. Wood Wood Prod, 331(8).
[14]
Kaunda, C. S., Kimambo, C. Z., & Nielsen, T. K. (2012). Potential of small-scale hydropower for electricity generation in Sub-Saharan Africa. ISRN Renewable Energy, 2012.
[15]
Uduma, K., & Arciszewski, T. (2010). Sustainable energy development: the key to a stable Nigeria. Sustainability, 2(6), 1558-1570.
[16]
Saifuddin, N., Bello, S., Fatihah, S., & Vigna, K. R. (2016). Improving Electricity Supply in Nigeria-Potential for Renewable Energy from Biomass. International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, 11(14), 8322-8339.
[17]
Usman, Z. G., & Abbasoglu, S. (2014). An overview of power sector laws, policies and reforms in Nigeria. Asian Trans Eng, 4(2).
[18]
Nnaji, B. A. R. T. (2011). Power sector outlook in Nigeria: government renewed priorities. presentation at Securities and Exchange Commission, Abuja, June.
[19]
Okoro, O. I., & Chikuni, E. (2007). Power sector reforms in Nigeria: opportunities and challenges. Journal of Energy in Southern Africa, 18(3), 52-57.
[20]
Wara, S. T., Abayomi-Alli, A., Umo, N. D., Oghogho, I., & Odikayor, C. (2009). An impact assessment of the Nigerian power sector reforms. In Advanced Materials Research (Vol. 62, pp. 147-152). Trans Tech Publications.
[21]
Omoleke, I. I. (2011). Management of electricity generation and supply in Africa: The Nigerian experience. Journal of Public Administration and Policy Research, 3(10), 266.
[22]
Aminu, I., & Peterside, Z. B. (2014). The Impact of Privatization of Power Sector in Nigeria: A Political Economy Approach. Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 5(26), 111.
[23]
Ochugudu, A. I., & Onodugo, V. A. (2013). Power Sector Reform Deliverables: How Well and How Good to Customers?. International Journal of Management Technology, 1(1), 1-14.
[24]
Onyi-Ogelle, H. O. (2016). The implications of legal reform in the Nigeria power sector. African Research Review, 10(3), 279-289.
[25]
Adenikinju, A. (2008). Efficiency of the Energy Sector and its Impact on the Competitiveness of the Nigerian Economy. International Association for Energy Economics, 27(32), 131-9.
[26]
Almeshaiei, E., & Soltan, H. (2011). A methodology for electric power load forecasting. Alexandria Engineering Journal, 50(2), 137-144.
[27]
Citroen, N., Ouassaid, M., & Maaroufi, M. (2015, March). Long term electricity demand forecasting using autoregressive integrated moving average model: Case study of Morocco. In Electrical and Information Technologies (ICEIT), 2015 International Conference on (pp. 59-64). IEEE.
[28]
Meng, M., Shang, W., & Niu, D. (2014). Monthly electric energy consumption forecasting using Multiwindow Moving Average and Hybrid Growth models. Journal of Applied Mathematics, 2014.
[29]
Meng, M., Niu, D., & Sun, W. (2011). Forecasting monthly electric energy consumption using feature extraction. Energies, 4(10), 1495-1507.
[30]
Karim, S. A. A., & Alwi, S. A. (2013). Electricity Load Forecasting in UTP Using Moving Averages and Exponential Smoothing Techniques. Applied Mathematical Sciences, 7(80), 4003-4014.
[31]
As' ad, M. (2012). Finding the best ARIMA model to forecast daily peak electricity demand.
[32]
Oyelami, B. O., & adedoyin Adewumi, A. (2014). Models for Forecasting the Demand and Supply of Electricity in Nigeria. American Journal of Modeling and Optimization, 2(1), 25-33.
[33]
Nowicka-Zagrajek, J., & Weron, R. (2002). Modeling electricity loads in California: ARMA models with hyperbolic noise. Signal Processing, 82(12), 1903-1915.
[34]
Central Bank of Nigeria (2006). CBN Statistical Bulletin Vol. 17 (December, 2006). Available at http://www.cbn.gov.ng/OUT/PUBLICATIONS/STATBULLETIN/RD/2008/STABULL-2006.PDF. Accessed on 10th January 2017.
ADDRESS
Science Publishing Group
1 Rockefeller Plaza,
10th and 11th Floors,
New York, NY 10020
U.S.A.
Tel: (001)347-983-5186